Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 8, 2026 · 1:54 PM ET

FCA opens dialogue with prediction-market platforms

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is in contact with prediction-market platforms as Kalshi and Polymarket consider entering the UK, according to fnlondon.com.

Executive director Simon Walls discussed the regulator’s position at its Oct 6 annual public meeting. He said the FCA wanted to understand the platforms’ UK plans, the outlet reported.

Regulatory direction remains unclear

The report, published Oct 8, 2026 at 1:54 PM ET, also indicated that the watchdog was considering a relaxation of restrictions. However, the available summary cuts off before identifying what might be relaxed.

The material establishes regulatory dialogue, not a decision on market access. It provides no confirmed UK launch date for either Kalshi or Polymarket and no details of any proposed regulatory change.

What it means for prediction markets

• Engagement is not approval: The FCA’s discussions do not establish that either platform has permission to launch in the UK.
• The scope of any change remains unresolved: Without the missing detail, readers cannot determine which restrictions the FCA might reconsider.
• Launch timing is unconfirmed: The available reporting offers no timetable for UK entry by Kalshi or Polymarket.

July trading across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US reached a record $50.59 billion, rising 7.8% from June’s $46.95 billion, according to The Block’s data dashboard, as reported by GambleRSS. The headline gain masked divergent results: Kalshi expanded, while growth at Polymarket’s U.S. operation did not offset a decline offshore.

Kalshi leads as Polymarket’s mix changes

Kalshi recorded $37.7 billion in monthly volume, up 14% from June, retaining its lead. Polymarket’s offshore platform fell 26% to $7.9 billion, while Polymarket US increased 54% to $5 billion. Together, the two Polymarket platforms generated $12.9 billion, down from $14 billion.

Polymarket US, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), removed its initial waitlist restrictions in May and opened access to all U.S. users, according to GambleRSS. That provided a legitimate route for U.S. traders who had previously circumvented regional restrictions. Earlier this year, Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that U.S. traders accounted for about 30% of offshore Polymarket volume over the 12 months ending April 30, 2026.

World Cup activity meets a legal overhang

GambleRSS attributed July’s volume strength to the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19. Kalshi’s market on the Spain–Argentina final generated roughly $1.9 billion, while Polymarket’s tournament-winner market attracted around $4 billion.

The record turnover was accompanied by a retreat in open interest as the tournament concluded. Across the three platforms, open interest declined from around $2 billion at the beginning of July to $1.2 billion at month-end, according to GambleRSS.

Sports contracts also remain under U.S. legal scrutiny. Over a dozen state regulators have accused Kalshi and Polymarket of offering unlicensed gambling and have acted to block event contracts within their states. The platforms and the CFTC are challenging those actions, arguing that federal oversight takes precedence over state jurisdiction.

What it means for prediction markets

• The aggregate record conceals uneven growth. Kalshi gained volume, but Polymarket’s combined U.S. and offshore total declined despite rapid U.S. expansion.
• Tournament turnover and continuing exposure tell different stories. July’s record volume coincided with lower month-end open interest, making the headline total an incomplete measure of sustained activity.
• U.S. access is an important variable. The waitlist removal preceded Polymarket US’s growth, though the reported figures do not establish how much activity migrated from offshore.
• Jurisdiction remains contested. The dispute over federal and state authority leaves sports-related contracts at the center of the platforms’ legal uncertainty.