WSJ: Kalshi and Polymarket both targeting ~$20bn valuations in new funding talks

Funding ambitions rise

Kalshi and Polymarket are each discussing new investment at valuations approaching $20bn (£15bn), according to the Wall Street Journal, as relayed by GambleRss in a report originally published by EGR Intel. The negotiations remain preliminary: neither privately owned company is guaranteed to secure that valuation.

Both platforms attracted substantial capital toward the end of 2025. Kalshi’s December Series E raised $1bn at an $11bn valuation, with Paradigm leading the round and Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Meritech Capital and IVP participating. Less than two months earlier, Kalshi had raised $300m in a round that supported its expansion into more than 140 countries.

Polymarket received a $2bn investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) around the same time, valuing it at more than $8bn, according to the GambleRss report. The platform has been unavailable in the US since 2022 and subsequently acquired QCEX, which holds a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) licence, to accelerate its return.

A contrast with listed betting operators

The fundraising ambitions come as publicly traded sports betting businesses face falling valuations. GambleRss reported that pressure from prediction markets has accompanied declines at Flutter and DraftKings. Flutter’s shares were down more than 60% over the past six months, leaving a $19.7bn market capitalisation; DraftKings had fallen 45.2% over the same period, with a market value of $12.4bn.

Those figures put the proposed private-company valuations alongside—or above—the reported public-market values of established betting operators. But the comparison remains between funding targets still under negotiation and the market capitalisations of listed businesses, not completed transactions on equivalent terms.

Scrutiny extends beyond fundraising

Both platforms faced scrutiny earlier this month over contracts connected to US and Israeli strikes on Iran, according to GambleRss. Six Polymarket users collectively made $1.2m on a contract concerning the timing of US strikes on Iran, first created in December 2025, raising concerns about possible insider trading. Separately, Kalshi declined to pay out on trades concerning whether former Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office by a specified date. CEO Tarek Mansour said on X that Kalshi would not pay out on death markets and instead refunded trades in that market.

State regulators have also challenged prediction-market operations. In January, a Massachusetts judge granted a temporary injunction barring Kalshi from offering sports-related event contracts in the state without a gaming licence. GambleRss also cited a November ruling in which a Nevada judge reversed an earlier injunction that had allowed Kalshi to stay online during a lengthy dispute with the state regulator.

Tennessee and Connecticut regulators have issued cease-and-desist orders to prediction-market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, in recent months. Polymarket also received a cease-and-desist order from the Netherlands Gambling Authority last month, according to the report. These disputes remain a separate consideration from the valuations being discussed with investors.

What it means for prediction markets

• Funding targets are not completed valuations. The reported $20bn figures depend on early-stage negotiations producing completed rounds.
• Capital and market access are distinct. Investor discussions do not resolve the reported licensing disputes or restrictions on platform availability.
• Settlement rules remain consequential. The Iran-related controversies highlight the importance of contract terms, payout decisions and market-integrity concerns alongside fundraising headlines.