US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 36.5% on Polymarket

Ceasefire contract moves lower

Polymarket priced the prospect of the US–Iran ceasefire continuing through November 30 at 36.5%, down 5 probability points, with $835K traded, according to the supplied market update dated Oct 22, 2026, at 3:24 PM ET.

The decline indicates a lower market-implied likelihood of the ceasefire lasting through the contract’s deadline. The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the move.

Reading the price change

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers dashboard compares venue prices over 24 hours, measuring changes in probability points rather than relative percentages. It draws data from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes.

The supplied dashboard extract records a venue-data timestamp of 22 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC, later than the article update. It explains the scanner’s methodology but does not include a ceasefire-specific entry, so it cannot independently confirm the headline figures or establish a subsequent price change.

The $835K trading figure provides activity context, but the supplied summary does not specify its measurement period. Nor does the material provide order-book depth or the contract’s detailed settlement conditions, limiting conclusions about liquidity and precisely what would qualify as the ceasefire continuing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 5-point decline shows traders marking down the ceasefire’s continuation through November 30; it does not establish that a breakdown has occurred.
• Activity versus liquidity: $835K traded is not, by itself, evidence of how much buying or selling the market could absorb without moving.
• Unresolved context: The catalyst, volume period and settlement criteria remain unspecified in the supplied material.