US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2 priced at 9.8% on Polymarket, down 4.7 points, on $169K traded

Hormuz agreement odds move lower

Polymarket’s contract on a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by November 2 was priced at 9.8%, down 4.7 percentage points, with $169K traded, in the update published Oct 21, 2026, at 1:54 PM ET. PredictionBubbles lists the contract among its downward political moves.

The decline reflects a lower market-implied probability of an agreement within the contract’s deadline. The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic development behind the move or provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria.

What the tracker measures

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers page compares prices over 24 hours, refreshes every 15 minutes and draws directly from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot dated 21 Oct 2026, 18:14 UTC.

The tracker ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect those rankings, according to PredictionBubbles. The Hormuz contract’s decline therefore describes a repricing, not independent evidence that negotiations have changed course.

What it means for prediction markets

• Deadline matters: The 9.8% price concerns an agreement by November 2, not the prospect of an agreement at any later date.
• Movement and activity are distinct: The 4.7-point decline measures the change in implied probability; the $169K traded is a separate activity measure and does not establish market depth.
• The catalyst remains unspecified: Without supporting diplomatic reporting or settlement rules in the supplied material, the price move alone cannot explain why traders lowered their assessment.