US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 priced at 38.0% on Polymarket, up 6.5 points, on $240K traded

Hormuz agreement contract moves higher

Polymarket’s contract on a US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 was priced at 38.0%, up 6.5 probability points, with $240K traded, in the supplied market update published Oct 29, 2026 at 2:24 AM ET. The price increased but remained below 50%.

The accompanying news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore provides no fresh reported development that explains the move, and the price change alone does not establish progress toward an agreement.

Reading the market snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its market-movers tracker measures changes over 24 hours using prices drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 29 Oct 2026, 06:18 UTC and says its figures refresh every 15 minutes.

The tracker ranks contracts by the size of their probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage gains. On that basis, the reported 6.5-point increase describes a shift in traders’ pricing—not a 6.5% relative increase or independent confirmation of a diplomatic breakthrough.

The $240K traded adds activity context, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. Nor does the material include the Hormuz contract’s order-book depth or detailed settlement criteria, limiting conclusions about liquidity and precisely what would qualify as an agreement.

What it means for prediction markets

• Higher pricing, still below even odds: At 38.0%, the contract reflects a higher market-implied probability after the 6.5-point rise, but the outcome remains priced below 50%.
• No identified fresh catalyst: The supplied news check does not connect the repricing to a new announcement. A market move should not be presented as confirmation of negotiations or an agreement.
• Volume is not liquidity: The reported $240K traded does not, by itself, establish how readily orders can be executed or how resilient the current price is.
• Settlement details matter: December 31 is the stated deadline, but the provided material does not explain the evidence required for the contract to resolve affirmatively.