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The Polymarket contract on whether the US-Iran ceasefire will continue through the midterms was priced at 70.5%, down 9 probability points, with $984K traded, in the Oct 22, 2026 · 4:54 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the declining political markets on its movers board.
The price still put continuation above an even chance, despite the downward shift. The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic development or other specific catalyst for the repricing.
What the board measures
According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings compare market-implied probabilities over 24 hours, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updating every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 22 Oct 2026, 08:40 UTC.
The board covers 2,033 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify for the rankings; resolved contracts and those without a sufficiently old price baseline are excluded.
Price movement versus trading activity
PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the absolute size of their probability-point change, not their relative percentage change. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking. Its broader table displayed the top 150 of 490 markets that had moved at least one probability point over the preceding 24 hours.
For the ceasefire contract, the $984K trading figure is therefore separate from the 9-point decline. The supplied material does not establish the contract’s order-book depth, explain its exact settlement criteria or attribute the move to particular news.
What it means for prediction markets
Continuation remained the higher-priced outcome: the contract stood at 70.5%, even after the decline.
The change is measured in points: the 9-point fall describes a shift in implied probability, not a 9% relative decrease.
The snapshot has limits: traded volume alone does not establish liquidity, and the board’s repricing data do not explain why traders changed their assessment.