US imports Russian diesel by November 30 priced at 66.5% on Polymarket, down 20.0 points, on $190K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether the US will import Russian diesel by November 30 was priced at 66.5%, down 20.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $190K traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers listing. The decline left the contract above 50% despite a substantial downward repricing.

PredictionBubbles placed the contract among its largest downward moves in its political/election category. The supplied material does not identify a news event or policy development behind the change.

How the move is measured

The board’s venue-price snapshot was dated 29 Oct 2026, 04:16 UTC. According to PredictionBubbles, it updates every 15 minutes, drawing prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and comparing them with levels 24 hours earlier.

Its ranking covers 2,006 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify; resolved markets and contracts too new to provide that comparison are excluded.

What the figures establish—and leave open

PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their probability-point change, not their relative percentage change. The diesel contract’s 20.0-point fall therefore describes the change in its implied probability, rather than a 20.0% relative decline. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine its ranking.

The $190K traded figure accompanies the repricing, but the supplied material does not establish order-book depth, the cause of the decline or the contract’s detailed settlement requirements. The price is a market estimate—not confirmation that imports will occur or that any underlying policy has changed.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level tell different stories: the contract fell sharply, but its 66.5% price still assigned the import outcome a greater-than-even implied probability.
• Volume is not liquidity: $190K traded provides activity context without establishing how much buying or selling the order book could absorb.
• The catalyst remains unverified: the listing documents a price change, not an explanation for it.
• Settlement details matter: the supplied material names the November 30 deadline but does not specify what evidence would qualify as a US import of Russian diesel.