US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before March 1, 2027 priced at 11.0% on Kalshi, down 7 points, on $84K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the March 1 nuclear-deal contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead — the…
Kalshi traders priced the prospect of the US agreeing to a new Iranian nuclear deal before March 1, 2027 at 11.0%, down 7 percentage points, with $84K traded, in the supplied Oct 20, 2026 · 7:54 PM ET market update.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining markets in its political/election category. The move signals a lower market-implied probability of an agreement by the deadline, but the supplied material identifies no diplomatic development behind the decline.
How the move was measured
PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by their absolute probability-point changes over 24 hours, rather than relative percentage changes. Its supplied snapshot used venue prices read on 20 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC, with the board refreshed every 15 minutes.
The scanner covers Polymarket and Kalshi. Its ranking universe comprised 2,005 markets that live longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures; only open contracts with a valid day-old price comparison qualify. The table displayed the top 150 of 482 markets moving by at least one probability point.
What the figures establish—and leave open
The $84K trading figure provides context for the nuclear-deal contract’s repricing, but it does not establish order-book depth or explain what drove the change. According to PredictionBubbles, volume and liquidity do not affect the movers ranking, which depends solely on the size of the probability-point shift.
The supplied source also does not include the contract’s detailed settlement criteria. That limits what can be concluded about which form of agreement would qualify: the reported price concerns the specified deadline, not the broader likelihood of an eventual US-Iran nuclear accord.
What it means for prediction markets
- A deadline-specific downgrade: The 11.0% price reflects reduced expectations for a qualifying deal before March 1, 2027—not a judgment that an agreement can never happen.
- Points, not percent: The reported decline is 7 percentage points over the board’s 24-hour comparison window.
- Cause remains unverified: Neither the price move nor the $84K traded establishes a diplomatic catalyst or the market’s liquidity.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Democrats hold 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterms priced at 84.0% on Kalshi, up 4 points, on $2.0M traded
- Middle Tennessee wins priced at 38.0% on Kalshi, up 16 points, on $1.6M traded
- Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League priced at 18.5% on Polymarket, up 3 points, on $1.1M traded
- Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting priced at 37.5% on Polymarket, up 3 points, on $211K traded
- Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election priced at 18.5% on Polymarket, down 3 points, on $241K traded
- Less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026 priced at 44.0% on Polymarket, down 10 points, on $105K traded