Upper bound of the target federal funds rate be at least 4.5% at the end of 2026 priced at 2.9% on Polymarket, down 4.0 points, on $2.4M traded

Year-end Fed threshold loses ground

A Polymarket contract asking whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be at least 4.5% at the end of 2026 was priced at 2.9%, down 4.0 probability points, with $2.4M traded in the supplied Oct 28, 2026 · 10:09 PM ET update.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining finance markets on its movers board. The price indicates a low market-implied probability of that specific year-end threshold, rather than a forecast of the exact rate.

What the board measures

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability-point differences, not relative percentage changes. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes; the supplied page records a venue-price snapshot at 29 Oct 2026, 02:16 UTC.

The board covers 1,966 markets with lifetimes longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify for ranking, and trading volume does not affect their position. The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the Fed contract’s decline or specify the period covered by its $2.4M traded figure.

What it means for prediction markets

• The threshold matters: The contract concerns an upper bound of at least 4.5% at the end of 2026, not the number or timing of intervening rate decisions.
• The move is in points: The reported decline is 4.0 probability points, not a 4.0% relative drop.
• Volume is context, not proof of depth: The $2.4M traded figure does not establish current liquidity or how much trading accompanied the decline.
• The catalyst remains unverified: The board documents repricing but provides no contract-specific explanation for it.