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U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Jan 1, 2028 priced at 13% on Kalshi, down 1 point, on $952K traded

PredictionBubbles' tech board lists the 2028-dated disclosure contract among its traded tech markets — a distinct longer-dated contract from the before-2027 disclosure…

The Kalshi contract asking whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before Jan 1, 2028 was priced at 13%, down 1 percentage point, with $952K traded in the Oct 17, 2026 · 3:24 AM ET snapshot. According to PredictionBubbles, the longer-dated disclosure question appears among the traded markets on its technology board.

Two deadlines, separate contracts

The before-Jan 1, 2028 contract is distinct from the question asking whether U.S. confirmation will come before 2027. According to PredictionBubbles, that earlier-deadline Kalshi market was the board’s most heavily traded technology contract at its latest refresh, with $29.2M in volume. That figure should not be confused with the $952K attached to the longer-dated contract.

The supplied material does not include detailed resolution criteria or identify news behind the longer-dated contract’s decline. Its 13% price represents a market-implied probability of the specified confirmation event—not independent evidence about whether aliens exist.

Reading the board

According to PredictionBubbles, its technology page tracks 59 open markets: 14 from Kalshi and 45 from Polymarket. The data refreshes every 15 minutes, and probability changes cover the preceding 24 hours. The board ranks markets by total traded volume, a separate measure from price movement; PredictionBubbles displays venue-published prices rather than accepting wagers or holding funds.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Keep the deadlines separate. The 13% reading applies to confirmation before Jan 1, 2028, not the before-2027 contract.
  • Distinguish activity from probability. The $952K measures total trading volume; the 1-point decline measures the change in the implied probability over 24 hours.
  • Check resolution terms before comparing contracts. The supplied material does not establish the precise criteria for qualifying U.S. confirmation. PredictionBubbles also cautions that related questions can differ in wording and settlement rules.
PredictionMarketsKalshi

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/tech/

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