Tyler Shough win the MVP priced at 1.0% on Kalshi, on $2.6M traded

Tyler Shough’s MVP contract on Kalshi was priced at a 1.0% market-implied probability, with $2.6M traded, according to the supplied headline. PredictionBubbles’ sports-board summary places the contract among its tracked sports markets in an Oct. 29, 00:40 UTC crawl.

A low probability with substantial turnover

The summary records 581 open sports markets and $821.8M in aggregate traded volume at that crawl. The supplied publication timestamp is Oct 28, 2026 · 8:54 PM ET.

Shough’s price signals that traders assigned a low probability to the MVP outcome at the reported snapshot. The $2.6M figure describes total trading activity, not the amount backing a Shough victory. No contract-specific 24-hour price change, award definition or resolution deadline appears in the supplied material.

Board snapshots differ

According to PredictionBubbles, its sports page aggregates prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied page text reports a different market count from the crawl summary: 567 open markets, comprising 211 on Kalshi and 356 on Polymarket. Those figures should be treated as separate snapshots rather than a single synchronized reading.

The page’s embedded display covers the 300 largest markets by traded volume. Its volume ranking is distinct from its ranking of absolute probability changes over the last 24 hours, so a heavily traded contract is not necessarily one experiencing a large price move.

According to PredictionBubbles, the most-traded sports contract at the page’s last refresh concerned Shakhtar Donetsk winning the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship, with $36.8M traded on Polymarket. PredictionBubbles displays exchange prices; it does not accept wagers, hold funds or provide trading accounts.

What it means for prediction markets

• Price and turnover measure different things: Shough’s 1.0% implied probability describes the reported price, while $2.6M captures cumulative trading activity—not directional conviction.
• Timing matters: The crawl summary and page text contain different market totals, and a 15-minute refresh cycle does not make every supplied figure contemporaneous.
• Contract details remain essential: The material does not specify the MVP award or settlement terms. PredictionBubbles also cautions that related questions across venues can differ in wording and resolution rules.