Titans-Colts Week 6 prop board puts Jonathan Taylor as the likeliest scorer at 77.7%, Tony Pollard atop Tennessee at 34.3%

Colts favored in the Week 6 model

The supplied Titans-Colts Week 6 model summary projects a 26-19 Indianapolis win on Sunday in Indianapolis. The update, published Oct 14, 2026, at 12:54 PM ET, puts the Colts ahead on both the projected scoreboard and the anytime-touchdown board.

Jonathan Taylor has the highest listed scoring probability at 77.7%. Tony Pollard leads Tennessee at 34.3%. Those figures describe individual touchdown probabilities, distinct from the model’s forecast for the game’s outcome.

For the spread, the model assigns Colts -6.5 a 56.4% probability, compared with a 53c price. Interpreting that price as a 53% implied probability leaves a 3.4-percentage-point gap between the model estimate and the market price.

The source material is incomplete: the linked rockytopinsider.com excerpt concerns Tennessee football’s 2026 mid-season accolades, rather than the NFL matchup. The figures above therefore come from the supplied headline and summary, not verifiable matchup reporting in that excerpt. The summary also cuts off before stating Pollard’s fair anytime-touchdown line.

What it means for prediction markets

• Spread pricing: The model’s 56.4% estimate exceeds the probability implied by 53c, but that difference is a model-market disagreement—not a guaranteed result.
• Touchdown contracts: Taylor’s 77.7% and Pollard’s 34.3% provide probability benchmarks. No corresponding touchdown contract prices are supplied, preventing a direct model-versus-market comparison.
• Information limits: Pollard’s stated fair line and the underlying model methodology are unavailable in the provided material, limiting independent assessment of the projections.