There be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting priced at 19.5% on Polymarket, down 2.0 points, on $1.1M traded
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used on Oct. 27 (the NBA preferred-partner deal and the CFTC-NBA…
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Polymarket’s implied probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting stood at 19.5%, down 2.0 percentage points, with $1.1M traded, in the supplied snapshot published Oct 28, 2026, at 3:54 AM ET.
The decline represents a shift away from the unchanged-rate outcome. The supplied material does not include prices for alternative December outcomes, so it does not establish how expectations are divided between a rate increase and a reduction.
Reading the market snapshot
According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance board measures probability changes over the preceding 24 hours and updates its data every 15 minutes. Trading on the underlying venues is continuous, meaning the displayed figures are periodic snapshots rather than a tick-by-tick feed.
The outlet lists 221 finance markets: 19 from Kalshi and 202 from Polymarket. Its highest-volume finance contract at the latest refresh concerned no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting, with $28.3M traded on Polymarket—a separate question from the December contract.
The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It reported that searches recirculated items already used on Oct. 27, including the NBA preferred-partner deal and a truncated reference to a CFTC-NBA item. That material provides no demonstrated explanation for the December contract’s decline.
What it means for prediction markets
The move is outcome-specific: The 19.5% price reflects the market’s assessment of unchanged December rates, not the probability of any particular alternative.
Volume is not conviction: The $1.1M figure is total traded volume, not a measure of current positioning or certainty.
Timing matters: PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes, while venue prices can change between updates.
Cross-venue comparisons require care: According to predictionbubbles.net, related Kalshi and Polymarket contracts can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines.