There be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting priced at 20.5% on Polymarket

December hold probability slips

Polymarket priced the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting at 20.5% as of Oct 24, 2026, at 2:39 PM ET. The contract was down 1 percentage point, with $1.0M traded, according to the supplied market summary.

The probability had fallen 2.5 percentage points since Oct. 22. That puts the latest decline within a broader retreat in the market’s pricing of an unchanged-rate outcome.

Reading the market snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance board reports market-implied probabilities, 24-hour changes in percentage points and total traded volume. The service refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.

The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the December contract’s decline or provide prices for specific rate-cut or rate-increase outcomes. The movement therefore shows reduced pricing for a hold, without establishing which alternative gained support.

What it means for prediction markets

• A hold remains a minority-priced outcome: the 20.5% reading represents the market’s current estimate, not a confirmed Fed decision.
• Volume and movement measure different things: $1.0M is total traded volume, not necessarily the amount traded during the latest decline.
• Cross-venue comparisons require care: according to predictionbubbles.net, related contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines.