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Texas Tech’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 29.0%, down 51 probability points over 24 hours, with $1.8M traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, it was the largest downward move overall and was due to resolve in about a day.
A sharp move close to resolution
The decline represents a change in the market’s implied probability, not a 51% relative drop. The supplied material does not identify the opponent, the specific fixture or any development explaining the repricing.
PredictionBubbles places the contract in its sports category. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data read on 24 Oct 2026, 19:11 UTC.
How the ranking works
According to PredictionBubbles, the main ranking covers 1,973 markets with lifetimes longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. That distinction concerns how long a contract exists, rather than simply how much time remains before settlement.
Markets are ordered by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, without volume or liquidity affecting their position. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify. The $1.8M traded therefore provides context for Texas Tech’s move, but does not explain its cause or establish the depth available at the quoted price.
What it means for prediction markets
The signal is a repricing: The 29.0% price and 51-point decline record a substantial shift in traders’ assessment, not confirmation of the eventual result.
Timing matters: With resolution expected in about a day, the remaining settlement window is important context for interpreting the move.
Volume and depth are different: The reported $1.8M traded does not, by itself, show how much liquidity is available now.
The ranking has limits: “Largest downward move” refers to PredictionBubbles’ eligible market universe, not every contract on Kalshi and Polymarket.