Texas Senate race priced for Talarico: 65c on Polymarket and 64c on Kalshi, Paxton at 37c on both

James Talarico leads the Texas Senate market on both Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of the start of early voting, according to Action Network. The seat being vacated by John Cornyn is priced in favor of a Talarico flip.

In the snapshot published Oct 15, 2026, at 4:09 AM ET, Talarico was listed at 65c on Polymarket and 64c on Kalshi. Paxton stood at 37c on each exchange.

Exchanges align ahead of voting

The two platforms show essentially the same ordering of the contest: Talarico is the favorite, while Paxton carries the lower price. The small difference between Talarico’s listings does not change that shared assessment.

Early voting starts Oct. 19, with Election Day on Nov. 3. Those are the next key dates for readers tracking whether the market’s preference holds as voting begins.

What it means for prediction markets

• Consistent favorite: Both exchanges put Talarico ahead, with nearly identical prices across platforms.
• A snapshot, not a trend: The supplied material provides no earlier prices to establish whether either candidate has gained or lost ground.
• Limited supporting detail: The available source extract contains no substantive polling or trading-volume data, so it does not establish what is driving the pricing.