Taiwan local elections market puts the Kuomintang at 80.5% for the Nov. 29 party-winner book

KMT leads, but the headline and source differ

The Kuomintang (KMT) remains the favorite in Polymarket’s Taiwan local-election party-winner market, according to polymarkettrader.com. Its October 14, 2026 snapshot, timestamped 12:50 UTC, puts the KMT at 75.5%, rather than the 80.5% cited in the supplied headline. The material does not establish why those figures differ.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) stood at 24.2%. Over the preceding 24 hours, the KMT fell 7.0 percentage points while the DPP gained 6.9 points. The source also contains a smaller discrepancy for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP): its structured data shows less than 0.1%, while its visible FAQ gives 0.1%.

Total trading volume was $277.0K, including $25.4K over the last 24 hours, with liquidity of $91.1K. Reported outcome volumes were $106.8K for the KMT, $96.3K for the DPP and $73.8K for the TPP. According to polymarkettrader.com, the figures reflect Polymarket YES-share prices and refresh twice daily; they are neither live nor executable quotes.

Settlement depends on local-government wins

The elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026, although the market lists November 29, 2026 as its end date. Settlement depends on which party’s officially nominated and party-registered candidates win the most qualifying mayoral and magistrate contests—not on an aggregate vote tally. Independent winners do not contribute to a party’s total.

The rules cover mayoral contests in Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City and Chiayi City. The qualifying magistrate contests are in Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County and Kinmen County.

A party secures the market once no rival can mathematically match or exceed its number of wins, with settlement relying on official results. A tie goes to the party whose English name appears first alphabetically among the market’s listed names. The market remains open until a winner is established or all qualifying results become official.

If any qualifying results remain unknown at June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the available results determine the winner; if none are known, settlement is “Other.” The rules use a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely through official Taiwanese government results from the Central Election Commission.

What it means for prediction markets

• The supported snapshot is 75.5%, not 80.5%. The headline discrepancy should not be treated as evidence of a subsequent price move.
• The KMT’s lead narrowed over 24 hours. The supplied material reports the price changes but identifies no catalyst for them.
• The contract measures qualifying offices won. Party affiliation, the exclusion of independents and the alphabetical tie-break can all affect settlement.
• The listed end date is not the full settlement rule. Official-result requirements and the June 30, 2027 cutoff govern unresolved outcomes; Polymarket’s published rules control.