Sunday night: Falcons 62-64% over Ravens, Huntley starting for Jackson

Atlanta favored as Jackson sits

The Atlanta Falcons were favored over the Baltimore Ravens ahead of their October 11, 2026 matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA, with Tyler Huntley starting in place of injured Lamar Jackson. According to predictionmarketspicks.com, the pregame market-based projection put Atlanta ahead by 3.5 points, with a 62% chance of winning.

Those figures are now historical, not live quotes. The supplied source says the NFL Week 5 game has been played and Kalshi’s KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL contract has settled. It does not provide a verified final score or identify the winning settlement.

Quarterback absence shifts the outlook

Jackson was ruled out Friday at 3:05 PM ET following uncertainty over his ankle from Wednesday through Friday, according to predictionmarketspicks.com. The outlet’s separate power-ratings model applied a 4.6-point adjustment toward Atlanta for Baltimore’s quarterback absence, producing a Falcons advantage of 4.5 points and a 63% win probability.

That adjustment helped reverse Baltimore’s underlying ratings advantage. The Ravens ranked 8th of 32 at +1.9, while the Falcons stood 17th at -0.5—a 2.4-point difference before accounting for home field and the quarterback situation. The power-ratings projection and the market-based Falcons -3.5 estimate are distinct measures.

Closing price reflects a substantial move

According to predictionmarketspicks.com, Atlanta’s Kalshi price rose from an archived 36¢ on October 5 to 63¢ immediately before kickoff on October 11, a gain of 27¢. The closing quote implied a 63% win probability, compared with the outlet’s 62% books-based fair-value estimate. The outlet reported no actionable edge under its methodology.

Its historical calibration also offered a caution about precision: among 3,266 games evaluated from 2013–2024 without using a market line, 666 received favorite win probabilities in the 60–65% range. Those favorites won 59% of the time, below the 63% assigned to Atlanta by the power-ratings model.

What it means for prediction markets

• Separate forecasts from prices: The 62% market-based estimate, 63% closing Kalshi probability and 63% power-ratings forecast describe different inputs, even where they are close.
• Winning and covering are different outcomes: The archived Falcons -3.5 YES contract cost 46¢, versus 63¢ for Atlanta to win outright.
• The repricing is not proof of a correct result: Atlanta’s 27¢ increase documents a market move; the supplied material does not verify the final score.
• Settlement supersedes the preview: The source identifies the contract as settled, so its pregame prices should not be presented as current trading opportunities.