Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026 priced at 91.0% on Polymarket, down 4.5 points, on $714K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers and culture boards list the Spider-Man top-grossing contract among their downward culture moves, in a culture category distinct from the lead —…
The Polymarket contract on whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will be the top-grossing movie of 2026 was priced at 91.0%, down 4.5 percentage points, with $714K traded in the Oct 21, 2026 · 2:24 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers and culture boards, the contract was among the downward moves in culture markets.
A decline from a high probability
The price still indicates a strong market-implied probability of the film finishing first, despite the retreat. PredictionBubbles defines its movement measure as the change in probability over the last 24 hours—not a percentage change in the price.
The supplied material does not identify a film-specific development behind the decline. It also provides no competing films’ prices or box-office figures against which to assess the shift.
What the board measures
According to PredictionBubbles, its culture page tracks 55 open markets: 12 from Kalshi and 43 from Polymarket. The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.
The board separates rankings by absolute 24-hour probability movement from rankings by total traded volume. The Spider-Man contract’s $714K figure therefore represents total trading activity, not necessarily money traded during the latest decline. PredictionBubbles displays venue prices as an information service; it does not accept wagers, hold funds or offer accounts.
What it means for prediction markets
- High probability, weaker conviction: The 4.5-point decline reduced the contract’s implied likelihood, but its 91.0% price remains well above an even chance.
- Volume is not an explanation: The $714K traded figure does not establish what caused the move or how much activity accompanied it.
- Timing matters: A board refreshed every 15 minutes may differ from the latest price available on Polymarket.
- Resolution details remain important: The supplied material does not include the contract’s full wording or settlement criteria, limiting interpretation of precisely how “top-grossing” will be determined.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/culture/
Date & time:
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