Senate control (Dem) slips 4 pts in a week to ~62%

Senate odds soften

Democratic Senate control is priced at approximately 62%, down from 66% a week earlier, according to DeFi Rate. The four-percentage-point decline comes with the midterms 23 days away.

The figures, reported as of Oct 11, 2026, at 12:54 PM ET, show a narrower advantage for Democratic Senate control, though that outcome remains above 50%.

Michigan also moves lower

DeFi Rate’s Michigan Senate reading fell from 72% to 68%, matching the four-percentage-point drop in the Senate-control measure. The supplied summary does not identify which party or candidate the Michigan percentage represents.

House control, meanwhile, stands at approximately 90%, according to DeFi Rate. The summary does not specify the party associated with that figure or provide a prior-week comparison.

With the source page unavailable, the figures establish the direction of the Senate moves but do not explain what drove them.

What it means for prediction markets

• Senate control has become less certain: Democratic control remains the higher-probability outcome at approximately 62%, but its reading has weakened from 66%.
• Michigan shows an equal-sized decline: Its move from 72% to 68% is notable, although the missing outcome label limits interpretation.
• The House comparison is incomplete: The approximately 90% reading is more concentrated than the Senate figure, but the supplied material does not identify the favored party.
• Timing matters: With 23 days until the midterms, these readings are a snapshot rather than a settled result.