Senate board keeps softening for Democrats in the 10:46 PM ET snapshot

Democratic Senate odds ease

Democratic Senate contracts were lower over the week in the 10:46 PM ET snapshot, according to defirate.com. The update, published Oct 12, 2026 at 10:54 PM ET, put Democrats’ probability of controlling the Senate at 62%, down 3 percentage points.

Michigan’s Democratic leg stood at 68%, a decline of 5 percentage points over the week. That was the largest weekly decrease among the three Senate-related contracts listed in the summary.

The Alaska Democratic leg was at 74%, down 2 percentage points. Despite the declines, all three quoted Senate-related probabilities remained above 50%.

The summary described the House-for-Democrats contract as holding, but cut off before providing further detail. The source page text was unavailable, leaving no House probability or additional explanation for the Senate moves.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: Democratic Senate control remained above 50% at 62%, even after a 3-point weekly decline.
• Michigan showed the greatest softening: Its 5-point drop exceeded the declines in both the overall Senate-control contract and the Alaska Democratic leg.
• The House comparison is limited: Without a quoted probability or the full source text, the summary does not support a numerical comparison with the Senate contracts.