Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire — John E. Sununu priced at 6.1% on Kalshi, down 3.9 points, on $2.1M traded

John E. Sununu’s Kalshi contract tied to a Republican victory in the New Hampshire Senate race was priced at 6.1%, down 3.9 probability points, with $2.1M traded in the supplied Oct. 30, 2026 snapshot. Those figures describe market pricing, not a confirmed election result.

Sununu contract moves lower

According to PredictionBubbles’ movers-board summary, the contract appeared among declining political markets in the Oct. 30, 10:24 UTC crawl. The supplied page text separately identifies its venue-price snapshot as 30 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC.

PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours and updates its board every 15 minutes using prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The 3.9-point decline therefore represents a change in implied probability, rather than a 3.9% relative decrease.

What the snapshot establishes

According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings cover 2,037 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding short-lived fixtures that can dominate movement tables as they approach settlement. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, and rankings depend on the absolute probability-point change—not trading volume.

The supplied material does not identify a specific development behind Sununu’s decline. It also does not establish the measurement period for the contract’s $2.1M traded figure or provide order-book depth, limiting conclusions about the liquidity behind the move.

What it means for prediction markets

• The direction is clear: the 6.1% price and 3.9-point decline indicate lower market-implied odds for the Sununu outcome over the comparison window.
• Volume is context, not an explanation: $2.1M traded does not establish how much trading drove this particular repricing.
• Timing matters: the 10:24 UTC crawl and 10:10 UTC venue-price timestamp are distinct; these figures should be read as a snapshot, not necessarily current odds.
• No election result is established: the contract’s wording concerns a Republican win, but the supplied evidence reports a price move rather than a resolved outcome.