Rafael Lopez Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections priced at 73.6% on Polymarket

Lima contract loses ground

Polymarket’s contract on whether Rafael Lopez Aliaga will win the next Lima mayoral elections was priced at 73.6%, down 4.7 probability points, in the supplied update published Oct 25, 2026, at 1:09 PM ET. The update reported $183K traded.

The price still places a win above an even chance, but the decline signals a lower market-implied probability. The supplied material does not identify an election development or other catalyst behind the move.

What the tracking data establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board measures changes over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, with updates every 15 minutes. Rankings reflect the absolute probability-point change, rather than relative percentage changes or trading volume.

The supplied board snapshot lists a venue-data timestamp of 25 Oct 2026, 21:47 UTC, later than the story’s publication time. Its excerpt explains the tracking methodology but does not include the Lima contract’s individual entry, so it does not independently confirm the headline figures at that later timestamp.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: The 4.7-point fall indicates declining confidence, while the 73.6% price continues to imply that a win is more likely than a loss.
• Volume is context, not proof of depth: The reported $183K traded does not establish order-book liquidity or explain why the price changed.
• The catalyst remains unverified: No polling, campaign news or election announcement in the supplied material accounts for the repricing.