Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections priced at 88.2% on Polymarket, up 9.8 points, on $186K traded

Rafael López Aliaga’s probability of winning the next Lima mayoral elections stood at 88.2% on Polymarket, up 9.8 percentage points, with $186K traded, in the update published Oct 27, 2026, at 1:09 AM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers and politics boards included the Lima mayoral contract among rising political markets. The supplied material does not identify an election development, poll or announcement behind the increase.

A 24-hour repricing

PredictionBubbles measures moves over 24 hours using changes in implied probability, rather than relative percentage gains. The 9.8-point increase therefore describes a shift in the contract’s market pricing—not a 9.8% relative rise.

According to PredictionBubbles, the movers board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 27 Oct 2026, 04:41 UTC. Its rankings cover 2,016 markets that live longer than 14 days, excluding markets without a valid 24-hour comparison.

What the trading figure establishes

The $186K traded provides context for the Lima contract’s price move, but the supplied headline does not specify the period covered by that figure. It also provides no order-book depth or transaction-level evidence with which to assess how broadly trading supported the increase.

PredictionBubbles ranks movers by the size of their probability-point changes; volume and liquidity do not determine their positions. The Lima listing consequently establishes a notable upward repricing, without establishing its cause or confirming the eventual election result.

What it means for prediction markets

• Strong market preference: The 88.2% price reflects a high implied probability for Rafael López Aliaga, not a confirmed outcome.
• Movement and activity differ: The 9.8-point gain measures the change in pricing; the $186K figure measures trading, with its reporting window unspecified here.
• The catalyst remains unverified: The supplied reporting does not explain why traders raised the contract’s implied probability.