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Pumas UNAM wins priced at 5.0% on Kalshi, down 27 points, on $1.2M traded

PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Pumas UNAM win contract among its largest downward sports moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead — it has…

Pumas UNAM contract drops sharply

The Pumas UNAM win contract on Kalshi was priced at 5.0%, down 27 probability points, with $1.2M traded, according to the supplied headline. PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among its largest downward sports moves, according to the accompanying summary.

The figures describe a sharp reduction in the market’s implied chance of a Pumas UNAM win. The supplied material does not identify the opponent, the contract’s settlement terms or a specific development behind the decline.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers rankings compare probabilities over 24 hours and refresh every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 22 Oct 2026, 05:08 UTC; the story’s publication time is Oct 22, 2026 · 1:24 AM ET.

The board’s universe comprises 2,016 markets lasting longer than 14 days. It excludes same-week fixtures to avoid having short-lived markets dominate the rankings as their outcomes become known. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify.

PredictionBubbles ranks moves by their absolute size in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking. The supplied headline gives $1.2M traded for the Pumas UNAM contract without specifying the period covered by that figure.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The decline is in probability points: A 27-point fall is not the same as a 27% relative decrease.
  • Turnover does not establish depth: The $1.2M figure adds trading context, but the supplied material does not show liquidity or explain what drove the repricing.
  • The outcome remains unresolved: A 5.0% market-implied probability is a price-based assessment, not confirmation of a loss.
  • The ranking has a defined scope: The sports listing reflects the board’s eligibility filters, not a comparison with every sports contract on either venue.
PredictionMarketsKalshi

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/

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