Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026 priced at 0.1% on Polymarket, on $1.4M traded

Polymarket priced the prospect of Project Hail Mary becoming the top-grossing movie of 2026 at 0.1%, with $1.4M traded, in the supplied market snapshot published Oct 21, 2026 · 7:24 AM ET. The price implies traders assigned a very low probability to that outcome.

The accompanying news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the previous 30 minutes. It therefore offers no fresh reported catalyst to explain the quoted probability.

Reading the market snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its culture-market tracker aggregates prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes its data every 15 minutes. Trading on the venues is continuous, so a displayed snapshot need not capture the latest transaction.

The supplied tracker text does not include a Project Hail Mary listing, its price history or its resolution criteria. The 0.1% probability and $1.4M volume come from the supplied headline; the accompanying material does not establish whether that probability recently changed.

Volume and probability are different signals

PredictionBubbles distinguishes rankings based on total traded volume from those based on absolute probability changes over the previous 24 hours. The reported turnover consequently does not, on its own, indicate a recent shift in expectations.

The tracker also cautions that related questions across venues can have different wording and settlement rules. Without the film contract’s precise terms, the supplied material does not establish the box-office measurement used to determine the winner.

What it means for prediction markets

• A low price is not a settled result: The 0.1% snapshot reflects market expectations, not a confirmed box-office outcome.
• Turnover does not establish momentum: The $1.4M traded figure provides activity context, but no film-specific 24-hour move was supplied.
• Timing and contract terms matter: The tracker refreshes every 15 minutes, and the supplied material does not include the rules governing this particular outcome.