Prediction markets spent $3M+ lobbying this year

Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have spent at least $3 million this year on lobbying and campaign contributions at the state and federal levels, according to an OpenSecrets analysis reported by Stateline and published on usa-today-news.com. The spending comes amid a widening dispute over whether prediction markets fall exclusively under federal derivatives regulation or must also comply with state gambling laws.

State-level spending spans both parties

Kalshi, described in the report as by far the largest prediction-market platform, has directed substantial political spending toward organizations supporting governors and attorneys general. OpenSecrets found that it contributed more than $300,000 combined to the Republican Attorneys General Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association. In the first half of the year, it also gave $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association.

The company has hired at least one lobbyist in 41 states, with particular attention to California and New York, according to the analysis. That footprint covers every state where prediction-market-specific legislation has been introduced. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told OpenSecrets that the company supports candidates from both parties, as other regulated U.S. businesses do.

A fight over regulatory authority

Platforms argue that their contracts belong in the same regulatory category as commodity-market instruments, rather than sportsbook wagers. State lawmakers from both parties contend that the businesses bypass gambling restrictions, taxes and consumer protections, particularly through sports contracts. This summer, Kalshi’s Head of Corporate Development, Sara Slane, told lawmakers the company wanted stronger relationships with states but maintained that oversight rests with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not state authorities.

The CFTC has four vacancies on its five-member commission, yet has vigorously asserted its jurisdiction, suing nine states that sought to regulate the industry. The Trump administration has also pursued efforts to limit state oversight. According to Stateline, Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, holds financial stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket. Many observers expect the U.S. Supreme Court eventually to resolve the states’ regulatory role.

Federal lobbying remains substantial

Kalshi alone spent nearly $1 million on federal lobbying in the first half of the year, OpenSecrets found. Its efforts targeted the CFTC, the White House, the Securities & Exchange Commission and both chambers of Congress.

Brad Lipton, director of the Roosevelt Institute’s corporate power and financial regulation program, told OpenSecrets that the campaign reflects a fundamental challenge to the industry’s business model. He questioned whether prediction markets could compete while complying with state law and characterized the spending as an effort to gain political leverage over weaknesses he sees in their legal position.

What it means for prediction markets

• Jurisdiction remains the central uncertainty. The dispute concerns whether federal derivatives oversight excludes state gambling regulation, with potential consequences for platform operations and contract availability.
• The spending total is broader than lobbying alone. The at least $3 million figure includes campaign contributions as well as lobbying across state and federal governments.
• Political activity does not settle the legal outcome. Kalshi’s presence in 41 states demonstrates the breadth of its advocacy, while litigation and possible Supreme Court review leave the ultimate division of regulatory authority unresolved.