Polymarket trims crypto upside this week

Crypto upside probabilities retreat

Polymarket probabilities for three crypto price thresholds fell this week, according to the supplied summary. The update, published Oct 11, 2026 at 11:54 AM ET, shows lower readings for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

The probability of BTC exceeding $90K declined from 76% to 64%, a drop of 12 percentage points. Despite that retreat, it remained the only one of the three outcomes priced above 50%.

Ethereum records the largest decline

ETH exceeding $3K moved from 67% to 42%, down 25 percentage points. That was the largest decline among the three contracts and took the outcome from above to below 50%.

SOL exceeding $140 fell from 52% to 35%, a decrease of 17 percentage points. Its latest probability was the lowest of the three readings.

The linked TradingView source, identified as carrying Crypto Briefing reporting, was unavailable. The supplied summary does not specify the contracts’ resolution dates or explain what drove the changes, limiting conclusions about their timing and causes.

What it means for prediction markets

• Upside expectations weakened across all three thresholds. Each probability declined, although the size of the move varied.
• Ethereum saw the sharpest repricing. Its 25-percentage-point decline exceeded Solana’s 17-point fall and Bitcoin’s 12-point retreat.
• Contract details matter. Without resolution dates and settlement criteria, these readings should not be treated as directly comparable forecasts of crypto performance.