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Polymarket traders favor zero Republican wins in key Senate swing states

Polymarket's market on which Senate swing states Republicans will win gives the leading outcome, that they win none of them, a probability of about 24.5 percent, with the market's total pool reaching 5.15 million dollars ahead of the November 3 vote.

Polymarket’s market on which Senate swing states Republicans will win has no Republican wins as its leading outcome, at about 24.5 percent, according to TradingView.

The market’s total pool has reached 5.15 million dollars ahead of the November 3 vote. Those figures were reported on Oct 31, 2026, at 5:45 AM ET.

Leading outcome, not a majority probability

The ranking puts Republicans winning none of the Senate swing states ahead of any other individual outcome in the market. But about 24.5 percent remains well below a majority probability: the leading scenario is not the same as an expectation shared by most of the market.

The supplied summary does not identify the swing states covered or provide probabilities for the competing outcomes. It therefore does not establish how narrowly the no-wins scenario leads its nearest alternative.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Rank and probability tell different stories: Republicans winning none leads the market, but its roughly one-in-four probability leaves substantial weight on other outcomes.
  • The pool is market-wide: The 5.15 million dollars refers to the total market, not specifically to the no-wins outcome.
  • Timing matters: The reported probability is a snapshot ahead of the November 3 vote, not a result or a guarantee.
PolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    TradingViewtradingview.com
    Publisher
    https://www.tradingview.com
    Source URL
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