Polymarket October Fed-hike odds spike near 50% after CPI, then pare back to about 30%

October hike bets retreat after inflation shock

Polymarket’s implied probability of an October Federal Reserve rate increase approached 50% after Wednesday’s U.S. inflation release, then fell back to about 30%, according to CoinDesk. The Oct. 15, 2026 snapshot captures a sharp reassessment of policy risk, followed by a partial reversal.

CME’s FedWatch tool moved in the same direction. Its probability of an October hike rose from roughly 22% to almost 47% before declining to 26% at the time of CoinDesk’s reporting. CME Fed funds futures assigned more than 70% probability to unchanged rates.

The catalyst was September consumer-price data. Annual inflation reached 3.7%, compared with 3.4% in August, exceeding economists’ expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month.

Policy uncertainty spreads across assets

Bitcoin fell below $81,000 as the inflation figures renewed concerns about tighter policy, CoinDesk reported. It traded close to $80,000 during early Asian trading, briefly recovered to about $81,500, then stalled near $81,000. The cryptocurrency was down 1% since midnight UTC and more than 2% over the preceding 24 hours.

Ether, XRP and solana declined 3.5% to 4%, while PYTH was the only top-100 cryptocurrency gaining more than 7%. Equity markets also weakened: Nasdaq futures fell 1% at CoinDesk’s reporting time after Wednesday’s 2% decline, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 8%, activating circuit breakers.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus, pointed to uncertain Fed policy and fragile institutional demand. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs registered $150.5 million in outflows on October 14, following $175.7 million in inflows the previous day, according to CoinDesk.

Anderson of market-making firm STS Digital told CoinDesk that policy uncertainty was hurting liquidity and reducing willingness to take risk across asset classes. He nevertheless expected the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month, while identifying energy shocks, fixed-income volatility and AI valuations as additional pressures on digital-asset sentiment.

What it means for prediction markets

• The initial reaction did not hold. Polymarket’s retreat from nearly 50% to about 30% shows that the post-CPI peak was not a settled assessment of October policy.
• Different markets showed a similar reversal. Polymarket’s roughly 30% hike probability and CME FedWatch’s 26% both remained below their immediate post-release highs.
• A hold remained the leading CME outcome. Despite the inflation surprise, CME Fed funds futures priced unchanged rates at more than 70%.
• Liquidity is part of the backdrop. STS Digital’s warning provides context for the repricing, though the supplied reporting does not quantify liquidity in the Polymarket contract itself.