Philadelphia wins priced at 7% on Kalshi
Down 32 points on $8.6M traded, the most active market on the movers board.
Philadelphia’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 7%, down 32 probability points, with $8.6M traded, in the Oct 18, 2026 · 4:24 PM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract led the board by traded volume and was classified under sports.
Heavy activity alongside a sharp decline
The volume ranking measures trading over 24 hours, separately from the board’s ranking of probability changes. Philadelphia’s listing therefore combines two distinct signals: the board’s highest trading activity and a substantial downward repricing.
The supplied material does not identify the Philadelphia team, its opponent, the precise event or the contract’s settlement terms. It also offers no explanation for the price decline, limiting what can be concluded about the sporting developments behind it.
How the board measures changes
According to PredictionBubbles, the board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot records venue data read on 18 Oct 2026, 20:12 UTC. Changes are measured against prices 24 hours earlier and expressed in probability points, not relative percentages.
The movement rankings cover 1,981 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify. Volume provides context but does not affect a contract’s position in the movement ranking; the separate activity ranking uses 24-hour traded volume.
What it means for prediction markets
- The decline is 32 probability points, not 32%. The 7% price represents the market-implied probability at the reported snapshot, not a confirmed outcome.
- Activity and movement are different measures. The $8.6M figure establishes substantial turnover, but does not by itself establish order-book depth or explain the repricing.
- Contract details remain essential. Without the event identity and settlement rules, the supplied information supports analysis of trading activity—not a conclusion about why Philadelphia’s chances were marked down.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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