Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 priced at 29.0% on Polymarket, down 6.5 points, on $883K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether Pete Hegseth will leave his role as Secretary of Defense by December 31 was priced at 29.0%, down 6.5 percentage points, in the supplied market update published Oct 29, 2026, at 8:09 PM ET. Reported trading volume was $883K.

That marks a lower market-implied probability of Hegseth’s departure before the deadline. The supplied material, however, does not identify a new Hegseth-related development explaining the decline.

What the market data establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker compares probabilities over 24 hours using prices drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page lists its venue-data snapshot as 30 Oct 2026, 00:18 UTC.

The tracker ranks changes in percentage points rather than relative percentages. Its methodology separates price movement from trading activity: volume provides context but does not determine a market’s position in the rankings.

Limits of the available evidence

The supplied source excerpt describes the tracker’s methodology but does not include a Hegseth-specific market entry. The 29.0% price, 6.5-point decline and $883K volume therefore come from the supplied headline, rather than a contract listing visible in the excerpt.

The summary reports no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. That does not establish why this particular contract moved, and the material provides neither order-book depth nor detailed settlement terms.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 6.5-percentage-point decline reflects reduced pricing of a Hegseth departure by December 31, not confirmation of his tenure through that date.
• Trading context: The reported $883K in volume does not, by itself, establish liquidity or how much trading accompanied the decline.
• Evidence gap: No specific catalyst is documented in the supplied material, so attributing the move to fresh personnel news would go beyond the available reporting.