Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 priced at 24.5% on Polymarket, down 5 points, on $597K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Hegseth departure contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead — the…
Hegseth departure odds decline
Polymarket’s contract on whether Pete Hegseth will be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 was priced at 24.5%, down 5 probability points, with $597K traded in the Oct 20, 2026 · 9:54 PM ET update.
According to PredictionBubbles, the Hegseth contract appeared among declining markets in its political/election category. The move signals a lower market-implied probability of departure by the deadline, not confirmation of any change in Hegseth’s position.
What the movers board measures
PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their probability-point changes over 24 hours, rather than by relative percentage changes. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 21 Oct 2026, 01:34 UTC.
The ranking covers 1,995 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding short-lived fixtures that can move sharply as they settle. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine a contract’s position in the ranking.
The supplied material does not identify a news event or official announcement behind the Hegseth repricing. Nor does it provide the contract’s detailed settlement terms or order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about the cause and durability of the decline.
What it means for prediction markets
- The change is in probability points: The 5-point decline measures the shift in the contract’s implied odds, not a 5% relative reduction.
- Volume is a separate signal: The reported $597K traded adds activity context, but does not by itself establish how much liquidity supported the latest move.
- The deadline matters: The price concerns departure by December 31, not Hegseth’s longer-term tenure.
- The catalyst remains unverified: The board documents repricing; the supplied reporting does not establish why traders lowered the odds.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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