Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31 priced at 10.4% on Polymarket, down 6.1 points, on $205K traded

Perim Island contract moves lower

Polymarket’s contract on whether Perim Island will no longer be under Houthi control by October 31 was priced at 10.4%, down 6.1 probability points, with $205K traded, in the supplied update published Oct 16, 2026, at 6:54 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the Red Sea contract was among the day’s downward movers, with its close about 15 days away. The summary also notes that the contract had not appeared in any earlier edition that day.

What the ranking captures

PredictionBubbles measures price changes over 24 hours and updates its rankings every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page identifies its venue-data snapshot as 16 Oct 2026, 22:43 UTC.

The ranking covers 2,011 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Markets need to be open and have a valid 24-hour price comparison to qualify; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine their position.

The supplied material does not identify a specific development behind the Perim Island repricing or provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria. The decline therefore establishes a change in market pricing, not independent confirmation of conditions on the island.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and scale: The 6.1-point decline reflects a lower market-implied probability of the stated outcome by October 31—not a 6.1% relative decrease.
• Volume has limits: The reported $205K traded adds context, but the supplied update does not establish order-book depth or explain what drove the move.
• Deadline and wording matter: With about 15 days until close, the relevant question remains the contract’s specific outcome by its deadline. The supplied material does not include the rules for determining that outcome.