Pedro Sánchez out as Prime Minister of Spain by January 31, 2027 priced at 60.5% on Polymarket

Sánchez exit contract opens above 50%

Polymarket traders priced a 60.5% chance that Pedro Sánchez will be out as Prime Minister of Spain by January 31, 2027, in the snapshot published on Oct 16, 2026, at 8:09 AM ET.

The contract had been available for about 22 hours and recorded $5K in trading volume. The version with a January 15 deadline stood at 48.5%, placing the two contracts on opposite sides of the 50% threshold.

Different deadlines, limited context

The prices indicate a higher market-implied likelihood of Sánchez leaving office by the later deadline. They do not, by themselves, establish why traders are pricing that difference or identify a political development behind it. The supplied material contains no reporting on a potential departure or the contracts’ detailed settlement conditions.

According to predictionbubbles.net, market-implied probabilities reflect contract prices rather than verified chances of an outcome. The site also distinguishes cumulative trading volume from liquidity currently available and positions still open. The reported $5K therefore describes trading activity, not how much money could be traded at the displayed price.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline matters: The January 31, 2027 contract prices an exit above 50%, while the January 15 version remains below that level.
• This is an early snapshot: About 22 hours of trading and $5K in volume provide limited evidence of how durable the 60.5% price may be.
• Settlement terms remain important: Without the detailed rules, the two prices should not be treated as a precise forecast of when Sánchez might leave office.