Odds of two Fed hikes by year-end jump to 44%, up from 13% a week ago

According to CoinDesk’s post-CPI live coverage, the probability of two Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end reached 44%, compared with 13% one week earlier. The repricing followed September CPI increases of 0.6% on the month and 3.7% annually.

Rate expectations rise, but Treasury yields reverse

The coverage, published on Oct 14, 2026 at 5:54 PM ET, also highlighted a sharp reversal in longer-term borrowing costs. After climbing as high as 5.36% following the morning inflation report, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 5.191% shortly after U.S. stocks closed, down 2.6 basis points on the day.

CoinDesk cited Bespoke as saying this was the first session since December 2022 in which the 10-year yield increased by at least 10 basis points, subsequently dropped at least 10 basis points from its intraday peak, and ended lower for the day.

A mixed signal for risk assets

CoinDesk suggested that such reversals can sometimes mark a change in market direction, while stressing that the implications were uncertain. Its argument for a possible benefit to crypto and other risk assets was conditional: the reversal would need to indicate that the sustained rise in interest rates had ended.

What it means for prediction markets

• The two-hike outcome has been repriced substantially. The move from 13% to 44% makes it much more competitive than a week earlier, though still below 50%.
• The policy and bond-market signals differ. Higher reported odds of Fed hikes coincided with a lower closing 10-year yield; the Treasury reversal alone does not establish that near-term tightening expectations have eased.
• Contract details remain important. The supplied coverage does not identify the venue, calculation method or settlement terms behind the two-hike probability, limiting direct comparisons with individual prediction-market contracts.