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October Fed hike is the biggest 7-day mover on DeFi Rate's board, up 3 points to 19%

DeFi Rate ranks the Oct. 28 hike first among 7-day moves, up 16% to 19%, ahead of September CPI.

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Oct. 28 reached 19% on DeFi Rate’s board, rising 3 percentage points from 16% over seven days, according to DeFi Rate’s ranking.

October hike leads the weekly moves

As of Oct. 14, 2026, at 2:39 AM ET, the October hike outcome ranked first among the board’s seven-day movers. It placed ahead of September CPI in that ranking.

The move represents an increase in the market-implied likelihood of a hike, but the 19% reading still leaves that outcome below a 50% probability. Its position at the top of the weekly ranking describes the size of the change, not the likelihood relative to every other outcome on the board.

The supplied summary does not give the September CPI contract’s probability or seven-day change. It therefore establishes the ordering of the two entries, but not the gap between their moves.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Change versus level: The October hike outcome gained 3 percentage points over seven days; its resulting probability was 19%.
  • Ranking has limits: Leading the weekly movers does not make a hike the market’s most likely outcome.
  • CPI comparison is incomplete: September CPI ranked behind the hike, but the supplied figures do not support a more detailed comparison.
FedKalshiPolymarket

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Defirate (defirate.com)https://defirate.com/?s

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