NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026 priced at 78.4% on Polymarket, down 14.8 points, on $341K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether NVIDIA will be the world’s largest company by market capitalization on October 31, 2026 was priced at 78.4%, down 14.8 percentage points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract had recorded $341K in traded volume.

The reading, reported on Oct 29, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET, still assigned a substantially higher probability to NVIDIA finishing first than to it not doing so. But the decline marked a significant shift in expectations shortly before the contract’s reference date.

A sharp move, with no stated catalyst

PredictionBubbles ranks its moving markets by the absolute size of their probability changes over the preceding 24 hours. That measure is separate from its volume rankings: the NVIDIA contract’s $341K represents total reported trading, not necessarily turnover during the price decline.

The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the repricing, provide competing companies’ market capitalizations or specify the contract’s detailed resolution rules. It therefore does not establish what drove the move or which rival traders considered more likely to take the lead.

Board snapshots differ

The summary’s Oct. 29, 15:25 UTC crawl recorded 195 open finance markets with $164.9M traded. The supplied PredictionBubbles page separately lists 194 markets, comprising 20 from Kalshi and 174 from Polymarket. Those counts describe different supplied readings and should not be treated as a single synchronized snapshot.

According to PredictionBubbles, its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. The site displays venue prices rather than accepting wagers or holding funds. Its supplied page identifies the Polymarket contract on whether there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2026 as the largest finance market by reported volume, at $9.3M.

What it means for prediction markets

• NVIDIA remained the favored outcome: A 78.4% price reflects a strong market-implied probability, not a confirmed result.
• The move matters independently of volume: The 14.8-point decline measures changing expectations; $341K measures total reported trading.
• Timing and rules remain important: The October 31, 2026 reference date is close, but the supplied material does not include the precise settlement criteria.
• The data is a snapshot: A 15-minute publication cycle means displayed probabilities may lag subsequent trades.