No Hormuz agreement priced at 79.5% on Polymarket, down 11.8 points, on $566K traded

Hormuz contract falls but remains at 79.5%

Polymarket’s no-Hormuz-agreement contract was priced at 79.5%, down 11.8 probability points over 24 hours, with $566K traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board. The decline placed it among the largest downward political moves, although no agreement remained the more heavily priced outcome.

The board identified the Hormuz question as the biggest mover in its political/geopolitics category. Its snapshot used venue prices read on 19 Oct 2026, 13:09 UTC, ahead of the story’s Oct 19, 2026 · 9:24 AM ET publication time.

What the ranking captures

According to PredictionBubbles, the board compares markets on Polymarket and Kalshi by the size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. It refreshes every 15 minutes; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking.

The snapshot covered 2,021 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Of those, 489 had moved at least one probability point, with the leading 150 displayed in the table. Only open markets with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify.

The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic development behind the Hormuz repricing or provide the contract’s deadline and detailed settlement conditions. The decline therefore establishes a change in market pricing, not confirmation of progress toward an agreement.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level tell different stories: the 11.8-point drop reduced the price of no agreement, but the contract still stood at 79.5%.
• Turnover is not liquidity: $566K traded adds context, but the supplied material does not establish order-book depth or how readily large positions could trade.
• The ranking measures movement, not causation: placement among major decliners does not explain why traders changed their pricing.
• Contract terms remain essential: without the deadline and settlement criteria, the price should not be treated as a general probability of any future Hormuz agreement.