No Hormuz agreement at 90.6% on Polymarket, down 3.6 pts, on $491K traded

Polymarket’s contract for no Hormuz agreement was priced at 90.6%, down 3.6 probability points over 24 hours, with $491K traded, according to PredictionBubbles. The decline reduced the market’s implied likelihood of no deal, although that outcome remained heavily favored.

PredictionBubbles placed the contract among the day’s declining markets in its political/geopolitics category. The provided material does not identify a diplomatic development behind the move or specify the contract’s deadline and settlement criteria.

How the move was measured

The figures accompanied an Oct 17, 2026 update published at 9:39 AM ET. PredictionBubbles says its underlying venue snapshot was taken on 17 Oct 2026, 13:08 UTC, with prices and rankings refreshed every 15 minutes.

The scanner compares markets on Polymarket and Kalshi by their absolute 24-hour change in implied probability. Its rankings use probability points—not relative percentage changes—and neither trading volume nor liquidity changes a market’s position.

Context for the repricing

According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking universe covered 1,988 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Its table displayed the top 150 of 405 markets moving at least one probability point. Markets without a valid day-old price comparison were excluded.

The $491K trading figure provides context for the Hormuz contract’s move, but the supplied material does not establish order-book depth or explain who drove the repricing. The price change alone is not evidence that negotiations advanced.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level tell different stories: No agreement became less strongly priced over the 24-hour window, while remaining the dominant outcome at 90.6%.
• The decline was 3.6 probability points: It should not be read as a 3.6% relative decrease.
• Contract details remain essential: Without the deadline and settlement rules, the quote cannot be treated as a general probability of whether a Hormuz agreement will ever occur.
• The catalyst is unconfirmed: The supplied reporting documents a market move, not a verified change in diplomatic conditions.