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Polymarket traders priced a 94.5% probability that Fed interest rates would remain unchanged after the October 2026 meeting, according to PredictionBubbles. The reading, reported on Oct 24, 2026 at 11:24 AM ET, was up 3.0 percentage points over the preceding 24 hours.
The contract had recorded $18.4M in total traded volume. PredictionBubbles identified it as the most heavily traded finance market on its board at the latest refresh.
A strong lean toward unchanged rates
The price indicates a pronounced market preference for an unchanged-rate outcome, but it does not establish what the Fed will decide. PredictionBubbles describes these probabilities as evolving estimates that can respond to economic releases, Fed communications and trading activity.
The volume figure also needs to be read separately from the daily price move. The $18.4M represents total reported trading, not money traded solely during the 24 hours in which the probability rose 3.0 points.
Reading the snapshot
According to PredictionBubbles, its finance board currently covers 200 markets, comprising 22 from Kalshi and 178 from Polymarket. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.
Comparisons across platforms require care. PredictionBubbles notes that related contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi can have different wording, settlement rules and deadlines, so their probabilities are not necessarily directly comparable.
What it means for prediction markets
Unchanged rates are heavily favored: The 94.5% reading reflects strong market conviction, rather than certainty about the October 2026 decision.
The move and volume measure different things: The 3.0-point increase captures a 24-hour repricing; $18.4M measures cumulative trading.
Timing and contract terms matter: A 15-minute refresh cycle can lag live trading, and cross-venue comparisons should account for differences in resolution rules.