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Nicolas Jarry wins priced at 42.0% on Kalshi, down 4 points, on $919K traded

PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Jarry win contract among its new markets on the move, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead — it has zero hits in…

Nicolas Jarry’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 42.0%, down 4 probability points, with $919K traded, in the supplied update published Oct 22, 2026, at 4:24 PM ET. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among newly opened markets showing price movement.

A sports contract reprices

The listing places Jarry in the board’s sports category. PredictionBubbles defines its new-market movers as contracts opened within the last week that have shifted by at least one probability point.

The supplied material does not identify Jarry’s opponent, the event, the contract’s settlement terms or a reason for the decline. It therefore establishes a change in pricing, but does not connect that change to a specific sporting development.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board compares probabilities over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 22 Oct 2026, 20:04 UTC.

The board ranks changes by their absolute size in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect those rankings; contracts without a valid 24-hour comparison are excluded.

PredictionBubbles also distinguishes price movement from trading activity. The $919K figure gives a measure of trading associated with the Jarry contract, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The direction is clear: the contract’s implied probability fell 4 points to 42.0%; that is a probability-point decline, not a 4% relative decline.
  • Volume is context, not an explanation: $919K traded does not establish what drove the repricing or how much liquidity was available.
  • Contract details remain essential: without the event and settlement terms, the supplied material supports a market-movement report rather than an assessment of Jarry’s sporting prospects.
PredictionMarketsKalshi

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/

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