Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 priced at 78.0% on Kalshi, down 3.0 points, on $1.0M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Maduro head-of-state contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead. It…
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Maduro contract declines, but remains above even odds
Kalshi’s contract on whether Nicolás Maduro will be Venezuela’s head of state on Dec 31, 2026 was priced at 78.0%, down 3.0 probability points, with $1.0M traded, in the supplied update published Oct 27, 2026 at 5:24 PM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles’ movers-board summary, the contract appeared among declining political markets in a political/election category separate from the lead item. The price still favored Maduro being head of state on the specified date, despite the downward move.
What the board measures
According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings measure changes over 24 hours and update every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied board snapshot was read from the venues on 27 Oct 2026, 21:11 UTC.
The board ranks moves by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine rank. Its stated universe covered 1,993 markets lasting longer than 14 days; the displayed table contained the top 150 of 482 markets moving at least one probability point.
The supplied material does not identify a political development behind the Maduro contract’s decline or provide its detailed settlement criteria. It therefore establishes a change in market pricing, not an explanation for that change.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction is not reversal: At 78.0%, the contract continued to favor the specified outcome after falling 3.0 probability points.
Volume is context, not market depth: The reported $1.0M traded does not by itself establish how much liquidity was available when prices moved.
The catalyst remains unverified: The board documents repricing, but the supplied reporting does not connect it to a specific event in Venezuela.
The date matters: The contract concerns Maduro’s head-of-state status on Dec 31, 2026, not an unrestricted forecast of his political future.