Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 priced at 76.0% on Kalshi, down 4 points, on $1.0M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Venezuela head-of-state contract among its downward political moves, in a political category distinct from the lead — it has…
The Kalshi contract on whether Nicolás Maduro will be Venezuela’s head of state on Dec 31, 2026 was priced at 76.0%, down 4 probability points, with $1.0M traded in the Oct 19, 2026 · 8:24 PM ET update. PredictionBubbles listed the contract among its declining political markets.
A lower price, with the outcome still favored
The decline reflects a reduced market-implied probability over 24 hours, rather than a 4% relative fall. At 76.0%, the contract still priced Maduro being head of state on the specified date as the more likely outcome.
The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the move. It also does not provide the contract’s settlement criteria or order-book depth, limiting conclusions about either the catalyst or how readily traders could transact at the displayed price.
How the movers board measures change
According to PredictionBubbles, its board draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 20 Oct 2026, 00:17 UTC and a ranking universe of 2,035 markets lasting longer than 14 days.
The board orders contracts by the absolute size of their 24-hour probability-point changes, not by trading volume. Only open markets with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify; the displayed table covers the top 150 of 489 markets that moved at least one point, according to PredictionBubbles.
That methodology separates price movement from trading activity. The $1.0M traded figure supplies context for the Maduro contract, but it does not establish market depth or explain why the probability declined.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction and level differ: The 4-point decline signals weaker pricing for the Maduro outcome, while 76.0% remains above even odds.
- Volume is not liquidity: The reported $1.0M traded does not reveal the orders available near the current price.
- The catalyst remains unverified: The supplied reporting documents repricing, not a specific political development driving it.
- The deadline matters: The question concerns Maduro’s status on Dec 31, 2026, rather than an unspecified change in Venezuela’s leadership.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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