NFL MVP board: Brock Purdy is the outright favorite at 28% on Polymarket and 30% on Kalshi

Purdy leads on both venues

Brock Purdy holds the highest NFL MVP probability on both Polymarket and Kalshi, according to Action Network’s board. His chances stand at 28% on Polymarket and 30% on Kalshi following San Francisco’s 5-0 start.

The snapshot, published Oct 15, 2026 at 10:54 PM ET, places Josh Allen behind Purdy at 21% on Polymarket and 20% on Kalshi.

Patrick Mahomes is priced at 11% on each venue, according to Action Network. Both platforms therefore show the same ordering among the three players: Purdy, Allen, then Mahomes.

Kalshi’s pricing gives Purdy a more pronounced advantage over Allen than Polymarket’s does. Still, even the higher of Purdy’s two probabilities remains below one-third: his status as the outright favorite does not imply that an MVP win is the most likely outcome against the entire field.

What it means for prediction markets

• Agreement on the leader: Both venues put Purdy ahead of Allen and Mahomes, despite modest differences in their probabilities.
• Different degrees of conviction: Kalshi assigns Purdy 30% versus Polymarket’s 28%, while Allen receives 20% and 21%, respectively.
• A snapshot, not a trend: The supplied figures establish the current ranking but do not show how far prices moved after San Francisco reached 5-0.