Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026 priced at 12.0% on Polymarket, down 4.5 points, on $133K traded

The Polymarket contract asking whether the next Astra model (6.1+) will be released by October 31, 2026 was priced at 12.0%, down 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles. The October 27, 2026, 12:54 AM ET snapshot showed $133K in traded volume.

Release odds fall ahead of deadline

PredictionBubbles listed the Astra contract among declining technology markets. The price reflects a low market-implied probability of a qualifying release by the deadline, rather than a forecast of when a release might ultimately occur.

The supplied material does not identify a company announcement or other specific development behind the decline. It also does not provide the contract’s detailed resolution criteria, leaving the precise requirements for a qualifying Astra release unspecified.

A broader technology-market snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, its technology board covered 57 open markets, with $66.7M in total volume. Of those markets, 14 were on Kalshi and 43 on Polymarket, spanning AI milestones, product launches, valuations and company events.

The board ranks daily movers by absolute probability changes over the preceding 24 hours, while its volume rankings measure total trading activity. Its most-traded technology contract at the latest refresh concerned whether the U.S. would confirm that aliens exist before 2027, with $29.6M traded on Kalshi.

PredictionBubbles aggregates venue prices and refreshes its data every 15 minutes; trading on the underlying platforms is continuous. The site also cautions that related contracts across venues can differ in wording and resolution rules.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is a change in deadline expectations: the 12.0% price concerns a release by October 31, 2026, not the likelihood of an eventual Astra launch.
• Volume and probability measure different things: $133K represents reported trading activity, not independent confirmation of the outcome or an explanation for the decline.
• Timing and contract wording matter: the quoted price is a periodically refreshed snapshot, and the supplied material does not establish the detailed conditions for resolution.