New Hampshire Senate is a runaway on both venues: Pappas at 90% on Kalshi, 89% on Polymarket

Pappas leads on both venues

Chris Pappas’s pricing in the New Hampshire Senate race stood at 90% on Kalshi and 89% on Polymarket, according to DeFi Rate readings reported Oct. 14, 2026. The two venues showed a clear favorite, with a one-percentage-point gap between their readings.

John E. Sununu was priced at 11% on Kalshi and 13% on Polymarket, according to DeFi Rate. Those readings were observed Oct. 14 between 7:10 AM and 9:42 AM ET.

Limited volume behind the readings

The supplied summary reported just $1K in combined volume. That small trading footprint is an important qualification when assessing the strong implied advantage for Pappas.

The observations span a morning window rather than a single synchronized snapshot. They establish the reported prices during that period, but the available material does not show how those prices changed or how volume was distributed between venues.

What it means for prediction markets

• A shared favorite: Kalshi’s 90% and Polymarket’s 89% readings place Pappas well ahead on both venues.
• Volume matters: The reported $1K combined volume limits how much trading activity underpins the apparent agreement.
• Timing limits comparison: Readings collected between 7:10 AM and 9:42 AM ET should not be treated as necessarily simultaneous prices.