Netanyahu out by end of 2026: No at 62% on Polymarket, with $124.6M traded

Netanyahu market favors “No”

Polymarket’s contract on whether Netanyahu will be out by the end of 2026 has “No” priced at 62%, with $124.6M traded, according to the supplied market headline dated Oct 16, 2026, at 7:39 AM ET. The price puts the balance of expectations against his departure before the deadline.

The accompanying summary says there was no significant new platform headline in the preceding 15 minutes. It does not identify a fresh political development driving the Netanyahu contract.

Related political signals

According to RG.org, a separate Likud market position it had highlighted on Tuesday declined from 43% to 38%. The outlet also reported that the polling average continued to put Likud at 23 seats and Yashar at 22.

Those figures concern a different political wager and do not establish a change in Netanyahu’s year-end departure odds. The supplied RG.org excerpt does not include the Netanyahu contract’s price history, resolution criteria or the $124.6M trading figure, limiting what can be verified beyond the headline snapshot.

What it means for prediction markets

• The quoted favorite is “No.” At 62%, the market leans against Netanyahu being out by the end of 2026, rather than treating that outcome as certain.
• Volume is not a directional signal. The $124.6M traded describes activity, not how much confidence traders collectively place in either outcome.
• Related contracts need separate interpretation. Likud’s move from 43% to 38% cannot, by itself, explain the Netanyahu contract without its terms and price history.