NBA Championship split at the top: Thunder at 22% on Kalshi, Spurs at 21% on Polymarket

Different leaders, similar contenders

Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the favorite to win the NBA championship. The Oklahoma City Thunder lead Kalshi at 22%, while the San Antonio Spurs hold the highest price on Polymarket at 21%, according to Sports Illustrated.

The comparison places the two teams well ahead of their rivals, with a 1% difference between their prices on each platform. Sports Illustrated reports that a winning $10 trade on the Thunder through Kalshi would generate $33.09 in profit, compared with $36.49 for a winning $10 Spurs trade on Polymarket.

Knicks and Heat show wider differences

The Philadelphia 76ers rank third on Kalshi at 10%, but fourth on Polymarket at 11%. The reigning champions, the New York Knicks, move in the opposite direction: they rank fourth on Kalshi at 9% and third on Polymarket at 13%, according to Sports Illustrated.

That leaves only the Thunder and Spurs above 10% on Kalshi. Polymarket also places the Knicks and 76ers above that threshold; Sports Illustrated describes a 7% gap separating the leading pair from those challengers.

Miami presents another substantial disagreement. The Heat trade at 7% on Kalshi, ahead of the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves at 5% each. On Polymarket, Boston and Minnesota remain at 5%, while Miami trails both at 3%.

Sports Illustrated identifies Miami as having the largest difference in potential profit on a $10 trade among the teams compared: $124 on Kalshi versus $303.20 on Polymarket, conditional on a Heat championship.

What it means for prediction markets

• The favorite depends on the venue. Kalshi puts the Thunder first; Polymarket gives the Spurs the lead. Neither platform’s top price represents a majority probability.
• Ranking and price can tell different stories. Philadelphia has a higher price on Polymarket despite ranking one position lower there.
• The larger disagreements extend beyond the leaders. The Knicks are priced at 9% on Kalshi and 13% on Polymarket, while Miami is at 7% and 3%, respectively.
• Profit figures are conditional, not guaranteed. The reported $10 examples depend on the selected team winning the championship.