Minnesota Senate: Peggy Flanagan at 88% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, on $53K combined in 24 hours

Peggy Flanagan (D) was priced at 88c on both Kalshi and Polymarket in Minnesota’s Senate race, according to DeFi Rate’s Senate board observed Oct. 16 at 12:59 AM ET. The snapshot put Michele Tafoya (R) at 13%.

Matching prices, uneven volume

Combined trading volume across the two venues reached $53K over 24 hours, with $49K on Kalshi, according to DeFi Rate. The activity was therefore concentrated on Kalshi even as both platforms showed the same price for Flanagan.

The 88c readings represent an implied probability of 88% for Flanagan on each venue. They describe market pricing at the observation time, rather than a poll result or a guaranteed outcome.

The broader Senate board

DeFi Rate’s board covers all 35 U.S. Senate elections in 2026, comparing prices across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini and OG while tracking implications for Senate control.

Its broader election coverage highlighted Senate debates in Maine, Georgia and Iowa on October 13, along with a new Marist poll placing Texas within two points as the final three weeks began. The supplied material did not identify a Minnesota-specific development explaining Flanagan’s price.

What it means for prediction markets

• Cross-venue agreement: Both Kalshi and Polymarket priced Flanagan at 88%, showing matching assessments at the recorded snapshot.
• Volume concentration: Kalshi accounted for $49K of the $53K combined 24-hour volume; identical prices did not mean equal trading activity.
• Limited directional evidence: The supplied snapshot includes no earlier Minnesota prices, so it does not establish whether Flanagan’s odds were rising, falling or holding steady.